The Australian Stock Market had a good week finishing stronger than the week before. It is now more likely that we have seen the end of the last primary cycle (19.3 weeks) either early on the 25th of August or right on 19 weeks on the 1st of October. We will need to wait and see how the new cycle unfolds to see this more clearly. One of the challenges I have with cycle analysis is that it leaves a lot of space for interpretation. However it still gives you a good indication in which direction the market is going.
The strong showing of the market reflected in the blog portfolio, with the profit (of current positions) up to 9.6% and the number of stocks in the red down to only 3. The downside were the retail stocks in the portfolio, which finished the week lower and DJS and JBH look like a sell for the week after this (unless they bounce back strongly). We also got stopped out of ERA (Energy Resources of Australia) after they spiked down during the week. After we have added WBC (Westpac Banking Ltd) this week we now have another two spots to fill. The transactions for the week were:
1st November: Sell 726 ERA @ 12.38 for a total loss of 10.15%
5th November: Buy 436 WBC @ 22.93
Looking ahead I have identified 4 new buys for next week. The first two are QBE (QBE Insurance Group) and NWS (News Corporation Inc). While both looked very attractive at first glance, I have noticed a bearish bar for the week, indicating there is a high probability of the stock moving lower over the coming weeks. Here are the charts to illustrate this. Read more…
Categories: Portfolio, Trading Updates Tags: boq, cpu, djs, era, jbh, map, mqg, nuf, NWS, qbe, wbc, wor
Just as you think you have it all figured out, the market proves that anything is possible. I am referring to last week’s post, where I mentioned the bearish bar and expected the market to continue to fall. Well the XJO had a good week and equalled the high of the week before finishing the week stronger compared to the previous close. I still think we will see another decline as part of the final decline of the 19 week cycle. Time will tell.
In line with the XJO, the blog portfolio posted another strong week with the profit of our open positions up to 4.86%. There were no further additions to the portfolio because we have reached our maximum number of 20 positions in the portfolio. For the week ahead I have identified several buys. All of them have been buys in the last couple of weeks. They are CWN, ERA, LEI, TOL, WAN, WOR and WPL. Read more…
Finally on holidays in beautiful Chile. I am sitting in my in-laws office and look out over the Pacific Ocean on another beautiful but chilly (not Chile) day. The family is slowly recovering from a cold and tomorrow we are off to the snow to ski in the Andes. I’ll leave the computer behind and will be truly on holidays.
I still managed to have a look at the charts for this week and hope that I haven’t missed anything. I find it more challenging to only have the laptop screen, when you are used to have a big monitor at home. The markets haven’t moved much, we had some gains and losses and the portfolio edged marginally higher. With TEL (Telecom Corporation of New Zealand) and ERA (Energy Resources of Australia) we have added two more positions and now have 16 positions in the portfolio. We also closed our position in WDC (Westfield Group) and ended up break even.
The transactions for the week were:
Read more…
In midst of packing for our upcoming holiday, I managed to review the portfolio for the week. Again there wasn’t much movement in the portfolio, with the profit of our open positions declining due to two more additions (GPT and MGR) that finished the week lower. Just as I wanted to keep it short for the week, I have noticed quite a number of stocks that have given the buy signal for Monday and others that could be a potential buy during the week depending on the price development.
The buys according to my analysis are: TEL (Telecom Corporation of New Zealand) and ERA (Energy Resources of Australia). Following stocks need their monthly swing to point upwards in order to be a buy: SGM (Sims Metal Management Limited) 18.75 or higher, PRY (Primary Health Care) 3.79 or higher and TOL (Toll Holding Ltd) 6.14 or higher. PRY looks particular interesting with a double low for the dates 21st November 2008 (3.46) and 2nd July 2010 (3.45).
I also have a sell for the portfolio. WDC (Westfield Group) had two closes under the uptrend band.
The transactions for last week were: Read more…
