Sell, sell, sell, this is the motto for the week ahead. I have identified 3 stocks that are currently in the portfolio that have two closed below the uptrend band this week, making it a sell. They are NAB (National Australia Bank), TSE (Transfield Services Ltd) and WBC (WestPac Banking). And the way it looks none of them will return us a profit. On a quick scan I have also identified a further two stocks with two closes below that are not part of the blog portfolio. They are CGF (Challenger Limited) and COH (Cochlear Ltd).
This combined the a Bearish Outside Vertical in the overseas markets, point to a further downward move in the week(s) ahead (if this week’s low will be taken out). I just hope this sideways movement in the Australian movement will come to an end soon and we will see the HSC perform better in a trending market.
I still have a couple of stocks that meet all the buy criteria according to the Home Study Course. They are: DOW, TEL, TLS and WOW. Fingers cross the keep their strength for the next weeks.
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Back home again after what was a very relaxing holiday in Chile. It is nice taking some time out and when you come back you look at things with fresh eyes. Whilst the markets have fallen in the three weeks that I was away, looking back it is very clear that we are in a sideways patterns since May this year. The range of the swings up and down seem to get smaller and we can expect bigger moves once either support or resistance levels are broken.
If the market breaks to the upside, then we are well positioned with now 19 open positions in the portfolio. Last week was another uneventful one for the portfolio with the value of our open positions edging half a percent lower. With ASX (ASX Limited) we added another position and what I like about this one is that the risk for ASX is only 8%.
The transaction was:
23rd August: Buy 330 ASX at 30.26
Looking ahead to next week, I have TOL (Toll Holdings Ltd) and LEI (Leighton Holdings Ltd) fulfilling the buy criteria according to my analysis. I still need to analyse the risk of both before I decide which one to add as I don’t want to have more than 20 open positions in the portfolio. ASX is still a buy as well. Outside the portfolio I found one stock meeting the sell criteria, which is COH (Cochlear).
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What looked like a recovery half way through the week ended up with the XJO taking out the low from November 2009. All in all the XJO lost another 1.2% compared to the previous week. Interestingly enough the blog portfolio profit rose slightly. I am getting asked a lot, what I think the market will be doing over the coming months.
I mentioned this before, we are currently at the end of a 53 week cycle and I expect the major low to be somewhere between now and the middle of May. There seems to be some major reversal days at the beginning of April and time will tell when the actual low will be.
We are certainly getting a lot of sell indicators at the moment and I am happy to take them to lock in the profit. Also many of the stocks I am watching are now in a confirmed downtrend. It is just a matter of waiting until they reach their bottom and then get ready to climb up again.
Last week we finally sold PDN (Paladin Energy Ltd) for a tiny profit of 1.3%. The transaction was:
1st February: Sold 2747 PDN at 3.69
Looking ahead to Monday, we will sell following: Read more…
Categories: Portfolio, Trading Updates Tags: all, amp, anz, bhp, coh, iag, ost, PDN, qbe, wan, wes
