Last week it was sell, sell, sell, this weekend it is rain, rain, rain. We are away for the long weekend and it hasn’t stopped raining – the kids are sleeping so perfect time to go through the shares for the week. The world markets and the Australian market showed mixed results last week, with the overall trend being bearish. The Australian market finished the week marginally lower as it managed to recover some of the losses on Friday.
We are now approaching the March low again. If the low is taken out it means we are yet to see the end of the last 53 week cycle and we should see more bearish behaviour over the next couple of weeks.
As mentioned last week we sold NAB, TSE and WBC. TSE was almost at break even and the other two incurred just over 7% loss for both. Looking ahead for the next couple of years, I expect the Australian market to finally show some direction again and rise steadily.
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Sell, sell, sell, this is the motto for the week ahead. I have identified 3 stocks that are currently in the portfolio that have two closed below the uptrend band this week, making it a sell. They are NAB (National Australia Bank), TSE (Transfield Services Ltd) and WBC (WestPac Banking). And the way it looks none of them will return us a profit. On a quick scan I have also identified a further two stocks with two closes below that are not part of the blog portfolio. They are CGF (Challenger Limited) and COH (Cochlear Ltd).
This combined the a Bearish Outside Vertical in the overseas markets, point to a further downward move in the week(s) ahead (if this week’s low will be taken out). I just hope this sideways movement in the Australian movement will come to an end soon and we will see the HSC perform better in a trending market.
I still have a couple of stocks that meet all the buy criteria according to the Home Study Course. They are: DOW, TEL, TLS and WOW. Fingers cross the keep their strength for the next weeks.
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Oh No! the blog portfolio’s profit of current positions is down to 10% again. When you first look at this it does not read very well. Whilst the Australian share index finished the week marginally lower, the portfolios profit is down from 14%. Nothing to worry about though as we were adding 3 more positions and you expect the profit to fall then, as it is unlikely their profit is up to 14% in the first week.
As mentioned last week DOW (Downer EDI Ltd), TEL (Telecom Corporation of New Zealand) and WOW (Woolworths Ltd) all three met the buy criteria according to the Home Study Course. Their buy price this week stayed under 33%. I am already looking forward for them to return some healthy profits to the portfolio.
Apart from the new additions I still have CPA, SKI (below 1.234), TLS and TSE meeting the buy criteria based on my interpretation of the HSC. I didn’t identify any new sells this week. There is a good chance I missed something, because I was redoing my workbook after attending David’s refresher webinar on the HSC. I liked his tips how to setup Market Analyst. But this means I lost some of my old trendbands on the charts and I need to go through them again in greater detail.
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The Australian share market finished the week slightly higher than the week before, whilst the blog portfolio moved marginally lower. This is to be expected when adding new stocks to the portfolio. Last week we added TLS (Telstra Corp Ltd), which finished the week 2% up compared to the opening price on Monday. Apart from this there wasn’t much movement in the portfolio.
Looking forward to Monday, I have a number of stocks fulfilling all the buy criteria according to the Home Study Course. They are DOW (Downer EDI Ltd) (under 3.92), TEL (Telecom Corporation of New Zealand) (under 1.74) and WOW (Woolworths Ltd) (under 27.33). This is interesting that all three are close to the 33% price extension and are only a buy if they open or move below the 33%. I also still have CPA, GPT, SKI, TLS and TSE meeting the rules. I didn’t identify any stocks meeting the sell rules. Read more…
It’s been a difficult year thus for to make profits following the Home Study Course (HSC). This goes hand in hand with the Australian share market as it is just not getting any real momentum and while the index is moving slowly higher it is more in a sideways movement. Most trades that we exited this year, were losers. For anyone just starting off with the HSC I would recommend to look for trades that carry less than 15% risk and possibly enter trades with less money than you would otherwise. Don’t get discouraged though. The market will pick up and you want to be ready for this.
It is important to cut the losers and on the other hand let the winners run. Take a look at ILU, which is up by almost 300% since we bought it. Whilst the Australian share market finished the week lower the profit of the open positions are up to over 14% again. This is mainly due to the fact that we got stopped out of two positions during the week with one of them (JHX) incurring the maximum 15% loss. This brings down the profit of our closed positions to 8.5%. Again this is not the true return on investment if you would reinvest your earnings, this figure would be much higher.
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Sincere apologies for taking a week off updating the blog. The last couple of weekends have just been a bit busy with the kids. It is lovely to see how this changes your life and priorities you put on things. I am sure everyone with kids of their own can relate to this.
We haven’t missed much last week. The Australian share market moves slowly lower on the back of the rising Australian Dollar. Interestingly enough, the day when overseas markets ended well in the red, the AUD lost some value, the Australian share market rose slightly. So it will be interesting to see what happens on Monday as the overseas ended the day with gains and the AUD gathered strength again. The decline of the share market filtered through to the portfolio and the profit of open positions is down to 9.57%.
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