Weekly Portfolio Update 101

November 13th, 2011 1 comment

Welcome to another one of my blog updates. It is getting more challenging for me to find the time going through the ASX 100 stocks and to update the portfolio over the weekend. As many of you are aware I have started trading Forex on an intraday basis during the week. This for me is enough looking at charts and I like to spend the weekends with my young family.

I have decided to stop the weekend HSC updates and start posting charts of some of my Forex trades I have taken during the week. I think this blog showed that the method taught by the Home Study Course is indeed profitable. However in times of sideways moving markets it will give more entries (than in an upward trending market) that result in a loss. Personally I believe in times like this it is best to sit on the sidelines, use smaller position sizes or look for different charting techniques and shorter timeframes. The challenge here is that you will miss the point when the market starts trending up again.

I will however continue to report on the current positions in the portfolio. As I am using NinjaTrader for my intraday charting I have also decided not to renew my Market Analyst subscription and have to base my exit criteria on trendlines rather than the trendband. I have found that when it comes to intraday charts NinjaTrader is much more responsive and reliable than Market Analyst. The only downside is that it is lacking some of the Home Study Course tools like trendbands or Gann swing charts.

There are a number of stocks that I have added to the portfolio since the last update. They are ANZ, BOQ, ORI, WES and WPL. I also closed the position in TEL as it had two closes below the uptrend band. The transactions were:

17th October: Buy 472 ANZ at 21.20
17th October: Buy 1250 BOQ at 8.00
17th October: Buy 401 ORI at 24.93
17th October: Buy 313 WES at 32.00
17th October: Buy 281 WPL at 35.65
28th October: Sell 5848 TEL at 2.00 for a profit of 16%

Before I finish this post a big thank you to my readers out there for your support and your comments. As I said I will continue the blog, just in a different format.

This leaves the portfolio as follows:


Current and Closed Positions
Investment: 960,059.24
Current Value: 1,026,714.91
Profit / Loss: 66,655.67 6.94 %
Current Positions
Investment: 120,065.12
Current Value: 123,314.90
Profit / Loss: 3,249.78 2.71 %
Closed Positions
Investment: 839,994.13
Value at Close: 903,400.01
Profit / Loss: 63,405.88 7.55 %
Current Holdings:
Code Qty Buy Price Current Price Profit/Loss %
ANZ 472 21.20 20.70 -236.00 -2.36
APA 2,433 4.11 4.45 827.22 8.27
ASX 329 30.44 30.24 -65.80 -0.66
BOQ 1,250 8.00 8.35 437.50 4.38
CPA 10,929 0.92 0.92 54.65 0.55
HVN 4,425 2.26 2.21 -221.25 -2.21
ORI 401 24.93 25.70 308.77 3.09
STO 829 12.07 13.56 1,235.21 12.34
TLS 3,356 2.98 3.14 536.96 5.37
WBC 470 21.29 21.04 -117.50 -1.17
WES 313 32.00 33.00 313.00 3.13
WPL 281 35.65 36.28 177.03 1.77

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Weekly Portfolio Update 100

October 16th, 2011 1 comment

I am up to the portfolio update 100 and it is good to see your comments indicating that you appreciated what I am doing. I am hopeful the markets do their bit to celebrate this post and continue their way up. After having a really good week the week before last, the Australian share market continued to advance, although by a much smaller level. This led to many more buying opportunities for next week and could mean some healthy profits in the near future. If the indicators are wrong however it will mean that the portfolio goes into negative territory for the first time.

Before I went away I mentioned that I would like to change the way I present the portfolio. Rather than always buying 10k worth of shares, I will use a percentage of the capital I have available for any purchases. This will give a better picture about performance as any profits are re-invested. Unfortunately having just returned from holidays I have been a bit busy this week and will set this up in the next two weeks. So for now any news buys will still be added to the existing portfolio. I will however transfer them to the new one once everything is set up.

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Weekly Portfolio Update 99

October 9th, 2011 2 comments

We are back from our extended holiday to Europe and had a fantastic time. The way it looks I didn’t miss much in the market and we picked the perfect time coming back. Looking ahead I can see many buying opportunities. Let’s just hope the market has found its bottom. Whilst overseas I occasional looked at the different indexes, one day 2-3% up and a few days later 2-4% down. Crazy market conditions. The German and the Australian index haven’t made a new low for some weeks now making me hopeful that we have seen the bottom.

Looking through the charts this weekend I could see many bullish bars indicating the same. And for the first time in months there are a number of stocks ticking all the boxes (according to the HSC) for a buy. If the upcoming week remains positive there will be plenty more joining in. Whilst the market is volatile though, it might be worth to look at a slightly different strategy to determine the stop loss. David teaches to never risk more than 15% on any given (HSC) trade and if the turning point is closer, use the turning point +1% as the stop loss. There is nothing wrong with this approach, especially if you are just starting out.

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Weekly Portfolio Update 98

September 14th, 2011 No comments

It’s been a month since the last update and the market hasn’t really changed that much. We are moving sideways since the last major decline and waiting how the situation in Europe develops over the coming months. To be honest I am quite happy about this as we are still on holidays and the way it looks I haven’t missed any buying opportunities. We have just come back from the beautiful Lago di Garda in Italy, which brought me back to the days where I went there a couple of times a year as it is relatively close to Germany. Lots of sunshine and pizza that tastes like real pizza plus plenty of Gelato – who cares what the market is doing!

Anyway after receiving a couple of messages if the blog is still active I decided to see how the portfolio was doing and apart from two more sells there wasn’t any activity. As mentioned in the last update ILU had two closes below the uptrend band and we sold it on the 15th August for a total profit of 176%. If I had bought back the half that got sold early on (profit taking) and adding to the position along the way, the profit would have been much higher. I will keep a closer look at this in future. The second was DOW, which stopped us out last week for a loss of 15%.

The transactions were:

15th August: Sell 1370 ILU at 15.93 for a profit of 176%
5th September: Sell 2584 DOW at 3.52 for a loss of 15%

I now have most of the ASX100 stocks in a confirmed downtrend (according to the Home Study Course) and haven’t identified any buys for this week.

The portfolio as of 9th September 2011 is

Current and Closed Positions
Investment: 859,995.04
Current Value: 923,481.49
Profit / Loss: 63,486.45 7.38 %
Current Positions
Investment: 30,001.00
Current Value: 31,777.48
Profit / Loss: 1,776.49 5.92 %
Closed Positions
Investment: 829,994.05
Value at Close: 891,704.01
Profit / Loss: 61,709.96 7.43 %
Current Holdings:
Code Qty Buy Price Current Price Profit/Loss %
CPA 10,929 0.92 0.92 54.65 0.55
TEL 5,848 1.71 1.97 1,520.48 15.20
TLS 3,356 2.98 3.04 201.36 2.01
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Weekly Portfolio Update 97

August 14th, 2011 2 comments

Back on to the market rollercoaster ride. At the start of the week the markets continued to move lower with momentum, but in the end recovered much of the earlier losses. In don’t think I have ever seen that many big bullish pin bars (open and close at top of the bar) when going through the stocks of the week. Still too early to say if we have found the bottom yet (that’s my point of view).

In times like this it is easy to get emotional about the market and to feel like the market has turned against you. Let me tell you this is the natural cycle of the market and even moves like this present lots of opportunity to make money for people that keep their cool. I know this is easier said than done. The actual opportunity to use this period to make nice profits may not come immediately and it might take weeks, months or even years for you to benefit from this move.

What I mean is not part of the Home Study Course and I won’t elaborate too much at the moment, but if you understand what price action is, it is definitely worthwhile to watch your bars when price returns back to any major low or in the current case to big moves up or down.

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Weekly Portfolio Update 96

August 7th, 2011 2 comments

Let’s start with the good news first. I can see more and more stocks being in a confirmed downtrend according to the Home Study Course rules, which means once the market turns up again, there will be plenty of buying opportunities.

What a week, as I was reading in one article – it was a blood bath. I wrote last week that we will see either big falls or a big gains after the US debt ceiling vote. Although many private investors would have thought otherwise (after the vote), markets had their biggest one day fall since the beginning of the global financial crisis and there are doomsayers saying this one will be worse than the last time. Let’s wait and see and get everything into perspective. The overseas markets had a fantastic run since June last year (not necessarily the Australian market though). And so far we have seen just over 38% retracement of the rise for the Dow Jones index. This is a very normal retracement for a cycle and we need to wait and see how much further it will fall.

So much to the global markets, now we have a look how this affected our portfolio. As you can imagine with a number of positions already in the red, this week triggered a number of stops. We got stopped out of AGK (AGL Limited), OST (OneSteel Ltd), SGM (Sims Metal Management) and WOW (Woolworths Ltd). And if the bears continue to dominate over the next couple of weeks we will close further positions. I also mentioned last week, that we had 4 stocks fulfilling the buy criteria. I was looking at them again on Monday morning and was thinking that it is not worth the gamble with the uncertainty of the US debt crisis. For the record all buys would have resulted in a loss with the stop being hit this week.

Not surprisingly I didn’t identify any stocks meeting the buy criteria this week and I noticed ORI (Orica Ltd) having two closes below the uptrend band.

The transactions for last week were:

5th August: Sell 682 AGK @ 13.42 for a loss of 8.45%
5th August: Sell 4975 OST @1.71 for a loss of 15%
5th August: Sell 526 SGM @ 16.17 for a loss of 15%
5th August: Sell 368 WOW @ 25.41 for a loss of 6.37%

On a private note, we are going on a Europe trip for until beginning of October. I will do my best to continue regular updates to the blog but I might miss a week or have the update delayed.

The portfolio as of 5th August is:

Current and Closed Positions
Investment: 859,995.04
Current Value: 925,069.56
Profit / Loss: 65,074.51 7.57 %
Current Positions
Investment: 65,004.88
Current Value: 81,238.54
Profit / Loss: 16,233.66 24.97 %
Closed Positions
Investment: 794,990.17
Value at Close: 843,831.02
Profit / Loss: 48,840.85 6.14 %
Current Holdings:
Code Qty Buy Price Current Price Profit/Loss %
CGF 2,058 4.86 4.65 -432.18 -4.32
CPA 10,929 0.92 0.92 0.00 0.00
DOW 2,584 3.87 3.70 -439.28 -4.39
ILU 1,370 3.65 15.64 16,426.30 328.49
PRY 2,959 3.38 3.00 -1,124.42 -11.24
TEL 5,848 1.71 2.07 2,105.28 21.05
TLS 3,356 2.98 2.89 -302.04 -3.02
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